Armed conflict and forced migration

Definitions and changes in the nature of armed conflict

The term armed conflict seeks to encompass the complexity of todays wars and violent world, but as Pankhurst (2004, pp.8-9) argues it can also result in conceptual confusion. Conflict, for instance, does not necessarily equal physical violence, but can also have a positive dimension as part of normal social interactions (Goodhand and Hulme, 1999). Common to all types of conflict is the issue of power relations. However, when conflict is not, or cannot be, peacefully resolved it can lead to violence and armed conflict or warfare (Moser and Clark, 2001). Definitions of armed conflict are varied and contested. According to the Uppsala Conflict Database: An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year. However, other definitions, like that by Fisas (2004), include the armed confrontation between different types of organised groups others than a government, and put the threshold at more than 100 deaths per year.

Armed conflicts can also be divided into different types according to their causes, whether they are seen mainly as ethnic, social or civil struggles, or depending on their geographical realm. The Canadian Red Cross distinguishes between international and non-international (within a single country) armed conflicts, both of which are considered to be wars in international law. SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), on the other hand, classifies most post-1945 violent conflicts under three categories: inter-state conflicts, internal conflicts and state formation conflicts. However, the complexity of todays wars makes such typologies sometimes hard to sustain on the ground.

What is clear is that the nature of armed conflict has changed significantly from the middle of the 20th century onwards, with a shift from inter-state wars to violent conflicts within states, a pattern that has accelerated since the end of the Cold War. Between 1989-1992 only three out of 82 conflicts were inter-state (Goodhand and Hulme, 1999). Many of these internal conflicts are protracted, have complex causes, and despite the use of low-tech weaponry have accumulated millions of deaths. For instance, an estimated 1.5 million deaths has been the cost of the Sudanese conflict since it started in 1983; 300,000 in Somalia since 1988; and 200,000 in Burundi since 1979 (Fisas, 2004). Many of these wars occur in the developing world and disproportionately affect civilians, as there is a growing blurring of categories such as home and front. It is widely quoted that nowadays civilians account for 75% to 90% of war casualties, compared with 90% military casualties at the beginning of the 20th century. Moreover, civilian victims are no longer just part of what militaries describe as collateral damage, but in many cases are deliberate targets of violence (Skjelsbaek and Smith, 2001).

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Forced migration: A consequence of armed conflict

According to SIPRI, in the 14-year post-Cold War period there were 59 major armed conflicts (those resulting in the battle-related deaths of at least 1,000 people in any single calendar year) in 48 different locations. In 2003, there were 19 major armed conflicts in 18 locations throughout the world, the lowest figure in this period with the exception of 1997, when there were only 18 conflicts. Only two of the major conflicts in 2003 were classified as inter-state: the war in Iraq and the long-standing confrontation between India and Pakistan. The main type of armed conflict thus continues to be intra-state, mainly as a result of the continuation of protracted conflicts, such as in the cases of Colombia and Israel-Palestine, and the sudden and rapid escalation of the intensity of conflict in other cases, such as Burundi, Indonesia and Sudan. Out of the 18 locations affected in 2003, eight were in Asia and four in Africa. Six of the conflicts in 2003 (Liberia, India/Kashmir, India-Pakistan, Indonesia, Nepal and Iraq) caused 1,000 or more deaths each. Many of these conflicts as well were responsible for the forced displacement of thousands of people.

Although the causes of forced migration are a complex mixture of political factors, such as gross violations of human rights, as well as economic and environmental aspects, armed conflicts have always been a major cause of the involuntary displacement of people. This is especially true given the changes in nature of modern wars, and how these increasingly affect civilians rather than mostly combatants. At the start of 2004, the number of people of concern to the UNHCR, which includes asylum seekers, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), returned refugees, and stateless persons, was just over 17 million, down from more than 20 million the year before. The fall in numbers was partly due to some improvements in the state of wars and political violence throughout the world, and the increasing number of people returning to their homes. Latin America and the Caribbean was the only region that saw an increase in the number of people of concern to the UNHCR, mainly because of the continuing problems in Colombia. Top of the list of countries that produced the largest number of refugees and asylum seekers in 2003 are those experiencing long-standing conflicts, such as former Palestine, Afghanistan, Sudan and Myanmar (more than 500,000 each). Sudan, Congo-Kinshasa, Colombia, Uganda and Angola headed the list of IDPs (ranging between one million to close to five million) (USCRI 2004).

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Case studies: current armed conflicts and forcibly displaced populations

Iraq. The war in Iraq is one of the only two major armed conflicts at the inter-state level registered by SIPRI in 2003. The current conflict in Iraq started with the launching of Operation Iraqi Freedom on 20 March 2003 by the US armed forces and other allies with the aim of bringing down the existent regime. On 9 April US forces took control of Baghdad and the Iraqi government fell, leading to the formal end of the war on 1 May. However, fighting and violence has continued until this day. Out of the many thousands of people that were displaced (internally and abroad) by the war, and the political problems beforehand, the UNHCR estimates that some 400,000 had returned to the country by September 2004. Nevertheless, other sources estimate that there are at least 1 million IDPs in the country, with the largest new population displacements as a result of continued fighting between the US-led coalition forces and Iraqi insurgents (Global IDP Database). In addition, Iraq was still home in 2003 to more than 130,000 refugees, including 100,000 Palestinians, some 14,500 Iranians, 13,000 Kurds from Turkey, and about 4,000 Syrians (USCRI, 2004). Some of these people have been displaced anew following the war in Iraq.

Colombia. The internal armed conflict in Colombia between the state, left-wing guerrillas and right-wing paramilitary groups remains one of the most intractable ones in the world. The modern origins of this conflict go back more than 40 years, and despite several attempts at negotiating peace, two guerrilla organisations and several paramilitary groups remain in arms. The armed conflict in Colombia has resulted in more than 40,000 deaths (Fisas, 2004), and the country leads the Western hemisphere in reported human rights and international humanitarian law violations (Human Rights Watch, 2004). Although there are signs of some improvements in levels of violence and human rights violations based on official data, these figures mask some regional differences and vary according to the type of violation (Amnesty International, 2004). It is estimated that more than three million people have been internally displaced by the conflict since 1985. Although the number of new displacements fell in 2003, Colombia remains one of the countries in the world with the largest number of IDPs. In addition, an estimated 230,000 Colombians were seeking refuge abroad in 2003, mainly in Venezuela, Ecuador and the US (USCRI, 2004). Violence and insecurity, together with a deteriorated economic situation, have contributed to a growing diaspora, with an estimated 4-5 million Colombians, or one in ten of the countrys population, now living abroad (Semana, 2003)

Afghanistan. As SIPRI points out, Afghanistan is an example of an armed conflict that resists neat classification as inter or intra-state. The country has been in a state of effective war for some 25 years. Although the Taliban regime was removed in late 2001 with the help of the US-led coalition forces, security and stability has still not been achieved in Afghanistan. Warlords still control parts of the country, while the central government remains weak, which makes it difficult for the millions of displaced Afghans to return home. At the end of 2003, some 2.5 million Afghans were living as refugees in other countries, while over 612,600 refugees returned to the country (whether voluntarily or through deportation) (USCRI, 2004). In addition, some 14,500 Afghans applied for asylum in Europe, North America, and Oceania, and following the return of some 82,000 internally displaced persons, an estimated 200,000-300,000 Afghans remained internally displaced by the end of the year (USCRI, 2004).

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